Ukraine conflict: Wagner Group insurrection fails to eliminate support…

By Aditya Pareek

Key points

• Event: Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin launched an armed insurrection on 23 June 2023. He said the objective of his insurrection was the removal of Russian Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov and Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu. Prigozhin aborted his insurrection later on 24 June following an agreement with the Kremlin brokered by Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko
• Significance: Despite Prigozhin's actions, Russia's elites, including regional governors and Russia's intelligence agencies, publicly expressed support for Russian President Vladimir Putin
• Outlook: There is a roughly even chance for a reversal in the Russian elite's support for President Putin in the short term

Event

On 23 June 2023 Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin alleged that the group had sustained casualties in a 23 June missile attack carried out by the Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD). However, at the time of publication, Janes is unable to confirm the attack took place. In response to the alleged missile strike, Prigozhin launched an armed insurrection into Russian territory on the night of 23 June. According to a statement by Prigozhin the insurrection was aimed at removing Russian Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov and Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu. Prigozhin also announced his intention to reach Moscow with Wagner troops.

In a 24 June statement, Russian President Vladimir Putin denounced the insurrection and compared the unfolding events with the 1917 Russian Revolution. However, on the same day, after an agreement with the Kremlin brokered by Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko, Prigozhin announced an end to the insurrection. Under the terms of the agreement, legal proceedings against Prigozhin launched by Russian domestic intelligence agency Federal Security Service (Federalnaya sluzhba bezopasnosti: FSB) will be halted and Prigozhin will leave for Belarus. However, on 26 June Russian media, quoting ‘sources' in Russian Prosecutor General's Office, reported that the cases against Prigozhin will not be closed.

During the course of the insurrection, no significant Russian political or military leader declared their support for Prigozhin.

Significance

Following Prigozhin's insurrection, Russia's elite, including regional governors such as Novgorod's Andrey Nikitin, Tver's Igor Rudenya, Dagestan's Sergei Melikov, and Arkhangelsk's Sergei Tsybulsky, publicly spoke in support of Putin. Figures such as Russian Orthodox Church head Patriarch Kirill, former President Dmitry Medvedev, Chairman of the State Duma Vyacheslav Volodin, Head of the Federation Council Valentina Matviyenko, and Head of Republic of Chechnya Ramzan Kadyrov also publicly declared their support for the Russian president.

In addition, Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin and both Governor of Rostov-on-Don Vasily Golubev and Governor of Lipetsk Igor Artamonov, whose regions Wagner troops were active in, made statements urging people to stay indoors and support the authorities.

On 24 June the Kremlin-appointed governors of the Russian-occupied territories in Ukraine – Crimea, Donetsk People's Republic, Luhansk People's Republic, Zaporizhia, and Kherson – and Andrei Turchak, the general council secretary of Putin's party, United Russia, also posted similar messages announcing their support for the Russian president.

Janes assess that First Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration Sergei Kiriyenko was likely responsible for the co-ordinated effort in securing public statements of support among Russia's regional governors.

The most important indication of continued loyalty to Putin among the elite was the apparent support of the Russian intelligence services. Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) Chief Sergei Naryshkin has characterised Prigozhin's insurrection as a failed civil war. Lieutenant General Vladimir Alekseev, deputy head of the Main Directorate of the General Staff of the Armed Forces (GRU) appealed to Prigozhin in person at the Southern Military District Headquarters on 24 June. Lt Gen Alekseev also appealed directly to the Wagner Group in a 23 June video to stop the insurrection. The FSB launched an anti-terrorist operation and criminal proceedings alongside other law enforcement agencies against Prigozhin.

On 24 June Kadyrov also denounced Prigozhin's actions and, according to his Telegram channel, sent his Akhmat battalion to engage Wagner forces involved in the insurrection. This expression of continued support for President Putin indicates the majority of the Russian elite has not broken away from him.

In a 25 June interview with Russian newspaper Vedomosti, Chairman of the Russian State Duma Committee on Defence Andrei Kartapolov said that the State Duma will not ban the Wagner group but a new law will be introduced regulating private military companies (PMCs), which are currently illegal under Russian laws. In November 2022 the Russian parliament passed and Putin signed – into law – legislation, which equates volunteers fighting for Russia in Ukraine with regular Russian military personnel, for social security benefits and awards. In the context of the war in Ukraine, the Russian authorities consider the Wagner Group to be in a grey area, and as one among the more than 40 volunteer units raised by regional governments, businesses including state companies, and individuals.

Outlook

There is a roughly even chance that major figures among the Russian elite will publicly breakaway from Putin in the short term. Janes assess that the aborted insurrection led by Prigozhin has set a precedent and there is a roughly even chance of further challenges to Putin's hold on power emerging in the short to medium term.

The Russian State Duma is likely to adopt a new law regulating PMCs and their activities within the next three months. As of 26 June Russian media reported that Wagner troops who refuse to sign a declaration pledging they are not aligned with Prigozhin are being detained by Russian law enforcement agencies. It is likely that more Wagner troops and other associated individuals will be detained or interrogated by the Russian authorities. It is also likely that many Wagner troops will sign contracts and fight under the leadership of the Ministry of Defence than join Prigozhin in Belarus.

(Note: Items from news/wire services are abstracted from the originals and are not verbatim)