David Cohnen On Elections In Germany
Submitted by David Cohnen
In the spring of 2019, I prepared the following Germany election forecast:
The course of the survey results so far in 2023 confirms my predictions. I was clearly wrong with the left, it remained well below my forecasts. I may have rated the CDU too positively. The Forsa survey result of 08/01/2023 is as follows:
If you include the proportion of non-voters with the values from 2021 in the table and correct the values of the individual parties accordingly, you finally get the following result (see correction).
Suppose there are two blocks. There are the established parties SPD, Union, Greens, FDP, which have an almost uniform policy. Then there is the left, which also supports the policies of the old parties on essential points but is contrary to them on other points. There is also a block of non-voters, others and AfD.
If the blocks are combined, then according to this calculation the old parties come to 48.258% and the non-voters/AfD block to 47.912%. That’s not even 0.35% in favor of the old parties. If one were to consider the non-voter/AfD block as the antithesis to the old party block, the left would currently be tipping the scales.
The problem of the old parties is that they do not give up their political aberrations and are dominated by the 11.49% Greens. Not only they, but the entire republic is dominated by the Greens. The old parties don’t seem to understand the message of the German voters.
The CDU should have a look at the 7 deadly sins.
- 1. Immigration: Stop and reverse as much as possible.
- 2. Crimes: Equal rights for everyone, including migrants.
- 3. Energy Transition: Stop and roll back the green agenda and everything related to it.
- 4. War: Seek an end to the war raging between the former Soviet republics of Russia and Ukraine. By stopping arms supplies and immediately negotiating with Russia and Ukraine and whoever.
- 5. Radio and television: immediately liquidate the compulsory payment propaganda radio and television companies.
- 6. Gender and LGBT: Ban everything related to gender from the public domain immediately.
- 7. Money: Strengthen the Bundesbank in relation to the ECB.
What is more important that the CDU or Germany does not go under? If the CDU makes sure that Germany doesn’t go under, it won’t go under either.
Of course, this also applies to all other parties.
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