Shangri-La Dialogue 2024: Philippines lays down ‘Rubicon' in South Chi…

China Coast Guard vessels conducting a blockade operation on 22 August 2023 to prevent the Philippines from sending provisions to its garrison on Second Thomas Shoal. (Philippine Coast Guard)

China and the Philippines would be ‘crossing the Rubicon' should a Filipino citizen be killed by Beijing's ongoing actions in the South China Sea. This statement, which carries the implication of a war breaking out between China, the Philippines, and the United States, was delivered by Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr during a question and answer session at the Shangri-La Dialogue on 31 May.

Marcos, who delivered the keynote address at the three-day dialogue that took place in Singapore, was responding to questions on the steps that Manila would take if the water cannons employed by the China Coast Guard were to kill a Filipino sailor.

Over the past few months, Chinese and Filipino coastguard vessels have on multiple occasions found themselves embroiled in maritime confrontations near the Second Thomas Shoal, where the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) maintains a small garrison of troops on the marooned landing ship, BRP Sierra Madre.

Second Thomas Shoal is a South China Sea feature that is claimed by both Beijing and Manila.

In its effort to prevent Manila from carrying out resupply missions to the garrison, China Coast Guard vessels have on multiple occasions employed water cannons against Philippine vessels, including on ships in service with the Philippine Coast Guard.

In March 2024 Manila disclosed that one of its resupply boats, Unaizah May 4, sustained “severe damage” with several crew members injured after being sprayed with water cannons by China Coast Guard vessels at Second Thomas Shoal.