[COX] SKT's Earnings and Dividends Return to Normal…The End of the Aft…

SK Telecom (SKT)'s performance is showing signs of almost fully recovering to pre-incident levels. / Photo: Generated by Coxnews using Gemini (AI)

SK Telecom (SKT) is expected to post second-quarter operating profit of 532.8 billion won, up 57.5% from a year earlier. On a standalone basis, operating profit is forecast to surge 69.5% to 425.2 billion won. About a year after the incident, the company's earnings have returned to a normal trajectory.

Of course, much of the increase reflects the low base from the second quarter of last year. During the same period last year, the company simultaneously absorbed the impact of a suspension of new subscriber acquisitions, subscriber losses, and 200 billion won in costs for replacing SIM cards for all subscribers. With those one-off expenses gone, the figures have returned to normal. What matters is the direction. SKT's cost structure has begun returning to its pre-incident state.

The more noteworthy area is its non-telecommunications business. SK Broadband is expected to post second-quarter revenue of 1.1522 trillion won and operating profit of 106 billion won, representing growth of 2.9% and 15.5%, respectively. Higher utilization of the Gasan data center, the contribution from the Pangyo data center acquisition, and steady net additions of high-speed internet subscribers have all supported growth. While the core telecommunications business has been stabilizing, data centers have emerged as a new growth driver.

There is still work to be done. Standalone revenue is estimated to decline 1.0% to 3.1037 trillion won, as subscribers lost after the incident have not yet fully returned. However, with the proportion of subscribers on premium 5G plans continuing to rise, there is ample room for improvement in average revenue per user (ARPU). Subscriber recovery is no longer a question of direction, but of speed.

The most welcome signal for investors is the dividend. Kim Tae-hyun, a research fellow at IBK Investment & Securities, expects the annual dividend per share to recover to 3,540 won, the same level as in 2024, once annual earnings return to pre-hacking incident levels. Based on the June 25 closing price of 91,400 won, the dividend yield stands at 3.9%. Dividends that had been cut in half are making a comeback.

The second half of the year also provides support. In the third and fourth quarters of last year, the company recognized 500 billion won in customer appreciation package costs, including rate discounts and membership benefits, resulting in a low comparison base. Construction of the Ulsan AI data center, targeted to begin operations in 2027, is also progressing smoothly.

The marks left by the incident have not yet completely faded. But earnings and dividends are each returning to where they belong. SKT's clock is already turning back to where it was before the incident.